Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan ErslanUFC FIGHT NIGHT: ALLEN VS COSTA2026-05-1610 BOUTSV14 LEAN
TONIGHT'S EDGESLIVE
10 BOUTS · MODEL V14| # | FIGHT | MODEL % | MKT % | EDGE | METHOD | TIER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | AllenvsCostaTOSS Featherweight | 54.9% | 46.5% | +8.4pp F2 | TOSS | |
| 02 | ChoivsSantos Featherweight | 38.5% | 38.5% | +0.0pp F1 | MED | |
| 03 | WellmakervsDiazTOSS Bantamweight | 51.9% | 31.5% | +20.4pp F2 | TOSS | |
| 04 | CuambavsSopajTOSS Bantamweight | 50.6% | 45.5% | +5.1pp F1 | TOSS | |
| 05 | TokkosvsErslanTOSS Light Heavyweight | 50.9% | 38.5% | +12.4pp F1 | TOSS | |
| 06 | VieiravsCavalcanti Women's Bantamweight | 60.7% | 57.5% | +3.2pp F2 | MED | |
| 07 | BrundagevsPetroski Middleweight | 42.1% | 39.5% | +2.6pp F1 | LOW | |
| 08 | ArdeleanvsViana Women's Strawweight | 44.8% | 37.0% | +7.8pp F2 | LOW | |
| 09 | BarezvsGurule Flyweight | 58.4% | 39.5% | +18.9pp F1 | LOW | |
| 10 | BannonvsCaliari Women's Strawweight | 42.6% | 28.5% | +14.1pp F1 | LOW |
MARKET vs MODELDETAIL
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTTokkos
1-2
Erslan
0-3
MODEL
51%
49%
MARKET
38%
62%
MODEL vs MARKET
+12.5ppon TokkosTOSS
Descriptive only. TOSS-tier picks are excluded from accuracy claims.
LINE MOVEMENT · 36H
ILLUSTRATIVETOKKOS ML
+160
OPEN +142NOW +160
SIGNALS FEEDDERIVED
ILLUSTRATIVEMETHOD
Tokkos vs Erslan
Model leans DEC (42%) but KO+SUB 58% — method line split
42% DEC
2H AGO
METHOD
Wellmaker vs Diaz
Model leans DEC (46%) but KO+SUB 54% — method line split
46% DEC
1H AGO
METHOD
Choi vs Santos
Model leans DEC (49%) but KO+SUB 51% — method line split
49% DEC
NOW
VALUE
Barez vs Gurule
Model favors Barez by +18.9pp vs market
+18.9pp
4H AGO
VALUE
Bannon vs Caliari
Model favors Bannon by +14.1pp vs market
+14.1pp
5H AGO
VALUE
Ardelean vs Viana
Model favors Viana by +7.8pp vs market
+7.8pp
3H AGO
BACKTEST · LIVE TRIALSAMPLE
ILLUSTRATIVEV14 model · live trial+7.0% ROI
n=42 · sample only
2025-2026 holdout · accuracy~60% acc
~3pp below favorite baseline
TOSS-tier picks · excludedn/a
per methodology
ILLUSTRATIVELive wires when Research files headline_stats.json.
ELO LEADERS · LHW
ILLUSTRATIVEPENDING DATA SOURCELights up when Research lane files elo_leaders.json per division. Sprint 2 surfaces only numbers it can cite.